Investment Portfolio Shift 2026: From US Stocks to Europe, Bonds, Gold & AI

Key Takeaway: The author reduces US‑stocks and increases European equities, fixed‑income assets and gold to profit from de‑Dollarisation, high US valuations and AI investments.

Summary

• Five core themes:
  • Market concentration and high valuations
  • Expected US dollar depreciation despite reserve status
  • AI investments as a central yet critically reviewed trigger
  • European fiscal revolution offers infrastructure opportunities
  • Fixed‑income assets are the best investment field since the 2007/08 crisis
• Portfolio re‑alignment 2026:
  • US equities (Large‑Cap): -10 % (from 33 % to 23 %)
  • European equities: +5 % (from 8 % to 13 %)
  • Fixed‑income: +4 % (from 10 % to 14 %)
  • Gold (FX‑hedged): +1 % (from 4 % to 5 %)
  • Cryptocurrencies: +0,5 % (from 4 % to 4,5 %)
  • Other allocations remain unchanged or receive minor adjustments.
• Rationale:
  • US equities: high P/E ratios lead to trimming large‑cap exposure; 5 % shift to small‑caps.
  • European equities: rising valuations driven by €1 T infrastructure spending and structural reforms.
  • Fixed‑income: attractive yields post‑crisis, especially CHF‑based corporate, EUR‑government and US Treasury bonds.
  • Gold: hedges USD depreciation; prices above $4,000 per ounce.
  • Cryptocurrencies: moderate growth to 4.5 %.
• 2025 performance:
  • Outperformed the 60/40 benchmark; CHF‑hedged S&P 500 was the main driver.
  • USD/CHF depreciation of 11.5 % was decisive.
• Market concentration & valuations:
  • Top‑10 US companies account for 45 % of the S&P 500; Nvidia alone >7 %.
  • High company valuations: P/E 23‑x, Shiller CAPE 40.5.
  • Smaller and international markets offer better returns.
• US dollar depreciation:
  • IMF COFER data shows a structural decline in dollar reserve shares (71 % → 56 %).
  • Cylic depreciation could reach 20 % in a few years.
  • Gold inversely correlated; price > $4,000 per ounce.
• AI investments:
  • $571 B spent in 2026; $1.3 T by 2030 (3.8 % of US GDP).
  • Hyperscalers hold 27 % of S&P 500 capex.
  • Author believes AI may become a commodity; firms leveraging AI gain most value.

Related Queries

Wie wirkt sich die Reduzierung von US‑Aktien auf die Rendite des Portfolios aus?

Welche Faktoren rechtfertigen die Erhöhung der europäischen Aktienbeteiligung?

Warum betrachtet der Autor Gold als Absicherung gegen die USD‑Abwertung?

Quelle: https://philippdubach.com/2025/12/12/how-ai-is-shaping-my-investment-portfolio-for-2026/